Strategy Lab / Edge Map

Profit structure across the full logged ranked candidate universe.

This page mines the historical ranked candidates instead of just the published top picks. It is designed to show where the profitable structure actually lives so we can build stronger daily tipster rules.

Coverage Snapshot

This page summarizes the latest stored edge-map artifact across the full ranked historical universe.

Coverage: 2026-02-01 to 2026-04-08

Candidates: 7453

Generated: 09/04/2026, 01:58:33

Candidates

7453

All ranked historical candidates

Total units

-432.25u

Flat 1u across the entire universe

Universe ROI

-5.8%

ROI across all ranked candidates

Coverage days

Historical days analyzed

Foundation

Most actionable structural foundations with sample-size discipline.

1X2 • 1.61-1.90

52 sample13.85% ROI+7.2u1.75 avg odds

DC • >2.20

95 sample11.78% ROI+11.19u2.7 avg odds

4-7 • 1.40-1.60

57 sample3.07% ROI+1.75u1.5 avg odds

21+ • >2.20

68 sample2.72% ROI+1.85u2.93 avg odds

4-7 • 1.91-2.20

40 sample2.55% ROI+1.02u2.04 avg odds

Strongest Buckets

Best single-dimension buckets worth building sleeves around.

No buckets passed the shortlist thresholds yet.

Strongest Interactions

High-value combinations where the edge concentrates most clearly.

Liga I|Romania • 1.40-1.60

12 sample36.83% ROI+4.42u1.49 avg odds

Serie C - Girone B|Italy • 1.40-1.60

17 sample23.24% ROI+3.95u1.5 avg odds

Friendlies|World • <1.40

14 sample18.21% ROI+2.55u1.27 avg odds

Premier League|Russia • <1.40

12 sample17.92% ROI+2.15u1.28 avg odds

League Two|England • 1.40-1.60

22 sample16.27% ROI+3.58u1.5 avg odds

Bundesliga|Germany • <1.40

23 sample15.52% ROI+3.57u1.27 avg odds

Serie D - Girone E|Italy • DC

17 sample39.35% ROI+6.69u1.39 avg odds

Super League 1|Greece • DC

23 sample35.09% ROI+8.07u1.53 avg odds

Ruleset Comparison

Raw universe versus what is actually deployable

This is the honesty layer. `V1` shows the first promising candidate mix, `V2` applies sleeve-level sample discipline, and the frozen tipster ledger shows what the currently published selective engine has actually delivered so far.

Universe

7453 sample

-5.8% ROI

-432.25u

67.48% hit rate

1.44 avg odds

Candidate Ruleset V1

34 sample

20.5% ROI

+6.97u

50% hit rate

2.5 avg odds

Candidate Ruleset V2

31 sample

17.16% ROI

+5.32u

45.16% hit rate

2.6 avg odds

Official Frozen Tipster

33 sample

1.12% ROI

+0.37u

51.52% hit rate

2.01 avg odds

Candidate Ruleset V1

What the next system iteration should probably be built around

Ruleset sample

Historical candidates matched by the proposed ruleset

Ruleset profit

+6.97u

Flat 1u historical result

Ruleset ROI

20.5%

Historical ROI of the combined candidate ruleset

Ruleset hit rate

50%

Historical win rate for the combined candidate ruleset

Premium DC Bombers

Double Chance + odds >2.20, prioritized when rank bucket is 1-3 or 4-7.

This is the cleanest broad profitable structure in the full universe and the strongest foundation for an aggressive sleeve.

Mid-Price Rank 4-7

Rank bucket 4-7 + odds 1.91-2.20, preferably within Double Chance environments.

This pocket is smaller but positive and looks like a good expansion sleeve around the premium high-odds core.

Top-Rank Selective Safe Overlay

Only consider rank bucket 1-3 for lower-odds overlays, and only inside preferred leagues.

Top-ranked lower-odds candidates are much less bad than the broader safe universe, but they still need league-level discipline.

Sleeve Backtests

Premium DC Bombers

HIGH_ODDS + DC + odds >2.20 + rank <=7 + not blocked league

31 sample17.16% ROI+5.32u45.16% hit rate

Mid-Price Rank 4-7

HIGH_ODDS + DC + 1.91-2.20 odds + rank 4-7 + preferred league

1 sample100% ROI+1u100% hit rate

Top-Rank Selective Safe Overlay

DC + odds <1.40 + rank <=3 + preferred league

2 sample32.5% ROI+0.65u100% hit rate

Do not build around the broad SAFE_ODDS stream; its volume is large but structurally unprofitable in this sample.

Use league filters aggressively. Several leagues are strongly additive while others are obvious leak sources.

Keep odds-band structure explicit in the rules. Broad market buckets are too blunt; price zones matter more.

Treat top-rank low-odds candidates as overlays only after league screening, not as the core business.

League Filters

Preferred and blocked environments

Preferred Leagues

Regionalliga - Ost|Austria

27 sample25.22% ROI+6.81u

Super League 1|Greece

25 sample24.28% ROI+6.07u

Super League|Kenya

20 sample19.35% ROI+3.87u

Liga I|Romania

30 sample16.5% ROI+4.95u

New South Wales NPL|Australia

23 sample13.7% ROI+3.15u

Primera División RFEF - Group 1|Spain

44 sample13.64% ROI+6u

Bundesliga|Germany

39 sample13.44% ROI+5.24u

Friendlies|World

31 sample11.06% ROI+3.43u

Blocked Leagues

Liga MX|Mexico

24 sample-33.67% ROI-8.08u

Liga de Expansión MX|Mexico

26 sample-32.85% ROI-8.54u

Major League Soccer|USA

29 sample-32.45% ROI-9.41u

Ekstraklasa|Poland

51 sample-29.31% ROI-14.95u

Paulista - A4|Brazil

21 sample-29% ROI-6.09u

2. Liga|Austria

21 sample-28.86% ROI-6.06u

J1 League|Japan

47 sample-27.43% ROI-12.89u

Premier League|Jamaica

23 sample-27.22% ROI-6.26u

Candidate Ruleset V2

Stricter deployable core with sleeve sample gates

`V2` keeps the strong sleeves honest. Anything below the sample gate stays on the watchlist instead of quietly inflating the story.

V2 sample

Historical candidates that survive the V2 sample gate

V2 profit

+5.32u

Flat 1u result from the stricter candidate system

V2 ROI

17.16%

Historical ROI after sleeve-level sample discipline

Sample gate

Minimum bets a sleeve needs before it can join the deployable core

Premium DC Bombers

Core

HIGH_ODDS + DC + odds >2.20 + rank <=7 + not blocked league

This remains the only broad sleeve with both meaningful sample and standout profit concentration.

31 sample17.16% ROI+5.32u

Included in V2 because it cleared the 20-bet sample gate and stayed profitable.

Mid-Price Rank 4-7

Watchlist

HIGH_ODDS + DC + 1.91-2.20 odds + rank 4-7 + preferred league

This still looks directionally interesting, but it needs real sample before it can be promoted into the core engine.

1 sample100% ROI+1u

Left on watch because it has only 1 bets in this slice, below the 20-bet sample gate.

Top-Rank Selective Safe Overlay

Watchlist

DC + odds <1.40 + rank <=3 + preferred league

This is treated strictly as a watchlist overlay because the raw safe universe is weak and the sample is still tiny.

2 sample32.5% ROI+0.65u

Left on watch because it has only 2 bets in this slice, below the 20-bet sample gate.

V2 is intentionally stricter. A sleeve must show both profitability and enough sample before it gets promoted from watchlist into the deployable core.

This means V2 may have less breadth than V1, but it is much more honest about what the data really supports today.

Watchlist sleeves are still useful research directions, just not part of the serious-money core until they accumulate enough history.

V2 Sleeve Backtests

Which sleeves survived the stricter gate

Premium DC Bombers

Included

HIGH_ODDS + DC + odds >2.20 + rank <=7 + not blocked league

31 sample17.16% ROI+5.32u45.16% hit rate

Included in V2 because it cleared the 20-bet sample gate and stayed profitable.

Mid-Price Rank 4-7

Watch

HIGH_ODDS + DC + 1.91-2.20 odds + rank 4-7 + preferred league

1 sample100% ROI+1u100% hit rate

Left on watch because it has only 1 bets in this slice, below the 20-bet sample gate.

Top-Rank Selective Safe Overlay

Watch

DC + odds <1.40 + rank <=3 + preferred league

2 sample32.5% ROI+0.65u100% hit rate

Left on watch because it has only 2 bets in this slice, below the 20-bet sample gate.

Today Preview

Current candidates that fit the stricter V2 core

2026-04-08 • snapshot

This translates the historical edge map into something operational: which current ranked matches fit the deployable V2 sleeve right now.

Premium DC Bombers

No current candidates match the active V2 deployable core.

Filtered Out

Near-miss current candidates blocked by league discipline

No near-miss blocked candidates today.

Watchlist

Biggest leagues by contribution or leak

This list is not automatically “good.” It is the shortlist of environments producing the biggest impact, positive or negative, and should guide inclusion/exclusion rules in the next strategy iteration.

National League - North|England

97 sample

-20.25% ROI

-19.64u

Ekstraklasa|Poland

51 sample

-29.31% ROI

-14.95u

J1 League|Japan

47 sample

-27.43% ROI

-12.89u

Championship|England

76 sample

-16.39% ROI

-12.46u

FAW Championship|Wales

52 sample

-20.48% ROI

-10.65u

National League|England

101 sample

-9.79% ROI

-9.89u

Major League Soccer|USA

29 sample

-32.45% ROI

-9.41u

FKF Premier League|Kenya

40 sample

-23.3% ROI

-9.32u

By Algorithm

Safe versus high-odds ranked universes.

Bucket	Sample	ROI	Profit	Hit Rate	Avg Odds
HIGH_ODDS	1786	-6.33%	-113.13u	52.58%	1.84
SAFE_ODDS	5667	-5.63%	-319.12u	72.17%	1.32

By Market

Where the edge sits by market family.

Bucket	Sample	ROI	Profit	Hit Rate	Avg Odds
1X2	272	-7.53%	-20.48u	50%	2.05
DC	7181	-5.73%	-411.77u	68.14%	1.42

By Odds Band

Find the profitable price zones.

Bucket	Sample	ROI	Profit	Hit Rate	Avg Odds
>2.20	175	-0.07%	-0.13u	38.29%	2.81
1.91-2.20	302	-6.26%	-18.92u	46.36%	2.03
1.61-1.90	862	-8.09%	-69.77u	53.71%	1.72
1.40-1.60	2072	-6.18%	-127.99u	63.27%	1.49
<1.40	4042	-5.33%	-215.44u	75.41%	1.26

By Rank Bucket

See whether edge lives near the top or deeper in the candidate lists.

Bucket	Sample	ROI	Profit	Hit Rate	Avg Odds
1-3	345	-1.63%	-5.64u	64.93%	1.63
4-7	420	-3.83%	-16.07u	63.81%	1.59
8-12	480	-7.9%	-37.9u	62.5%	1.55
13-20	655	-7.75%	-50.74u	64.58%	1.5
21+	5553	-5.8%	-321.9u	68.68%	1.41

By Tier

Measure model tier quality in flat-unit terms.

Bucket	Sample	ROI	Profit	Hit Rate	Avg Odds
TIER_B	293	-5.99%	-17.54u	68.94%	1.44
TIER_C	7160	-5.79%	-414.71u	67.42%	1.44

By Weekday

Check if performance clusters by day of week.

Bucket	Sample	ROI	Profit	Hit Rate	Avg Odds
Mon	469	-1.12%	-5.27u	72.07%	1.42
Thu	363	-5.39%	-19.56u	66.67%	1.49
Fri	870	-4.35%	-37.88u	68.16%	1.43
Wed	519	-9.65%	-50.06u	64.93%	1.46
Tue	613	-10.42%	-63.87u	63.13%	1.47
Sun	1969	-5.08%	-99.97u	67.75%	1.45
Sat	2650	-5.87%	-155.64u	67.85%	1.43

By Kickoff Band

Check time-of-day patterns in UTC bands.

Bucket	Sample	ROI	Profit	Hit Rate	Avg Odds
00-05 UTC	385	-12.14%	-46.74u	62.34%	1.49
06-11 UTC	884	-7.44%	-65.78u	66.18%	1.45
18-23 UTC	1925	-7.49%	-144.2u	66.08%	1.45
12-17 UTC	4259	-4.12%	-175.53u	68.84%	1.44

Top Leagues

Most profitable league environments from the full candidate universe.

Bucket	Sample	ROI	Profit	Hit Rate	Avg Odds
Serie D - Girone E\|Italy	18	43.28%	+7.79u	100%	1.43
Regionalliga - Ost\|Austria	27	25.22%	+6.81u	85.19%	1.44
Super League 1\|Greece	25	24.28%	+6.07u	80%	1.52
Primera División RFEF - Group 1\|Spain	44	13.64%	+6u	81.82%	1.39
Bundesliga\|Germany	39	13.44%	+5.24u	82.05%	1.41
Liga I\|Romania	30	16.5%	+4.95u	80%	1.43
Serie C - Girone B\|Italy	57	8.54%	+4.87u	77.19%	1.4
Ligue 1\|Senegal	17	28.35%	+4.82u	94.12%	1.36
2. Division\|Denmark	18	26.67%	+4.8u	94.44%	1.35
Super League\|Zambia	17	27.71%	+4.71u	94.12%	1.35
Super League\|Kenya	20	19.35%	+3.87u	85%	1.46
Ligue 2\|Algeria	36	10.56%	+3.8u	72.22%	1.6
Ligue 2\|France	48	7.81%	+3.75u	75%	1.46
Indian Super League\|India	10	37.3%	+3.73u	90%	1.49
Carioca - 1\|Brazil	8	43.75%	+3.5u	87.5%	1.79

League + Odds Band

Best structural pockets by environment and price.

Bucket	Sample	ROI	Profit	Hit Rate	Avg Odds
Primera B Metropolitana\|Argentina • >2.20	2	225%	+4.5u	100%	3.25
Liga I\|Romania • 1.40-1.60	12	36.83%	+4.42u	91.67%	1.49
Ligue 2\|France • 1.61-1.90	8	53.5%	+4.28u	87.5%	1.74
UEFA Champions League\|World • >2.20	3	131.67%	+3.95u	66.67%	3.19
Serie C - Girone B\|Italy • 1.40-1.60	17	23.24%	+3.95u	82.35%	1.5
I Liga\|Poland • 1.61-1.90	8	48.63%	+3.89u	87.5%	1.71
Friendlies Clubs\|World • 1.40-1.60	8	48.37%	+3.87u	100%	1.48
Serie C - Girone C\|Italy • >2.20	2	181.5%	+3.63u	100%	2.81
League Two\|England • 1.40-1.60	22	16.27%	+3.58u	77.27%	1.5
Bundesliga\|Germany • <1.40	23	15.52%	+3.57u	91.3%	1.27
1. Lig\|Turkey • >2.20	2	175%	+3.5u	100%	2.75
Serie D - Girone E\|Italy • <1.40	11	31.36%	+3.45u	100%	1.31
Serie D - Girone E\|Italy • 1.40-1.60	6	54%	+3.24u	100%	1.54
Non League Premier - Northern\|England • 1.91-2.20	3	105%	+3.15u	100%	2.05
1. Lig\|Turkey • 1.91-2.20	3	105%	+3.15u	100%	2.05

League + Market

Which market types work in which leagues.

Bucket	Sample	ROI	Profit	Hit Rate	Avg Odds
Super League 1\|Greece • DC	23	35.09%	+8.07u	86.96%	1.53
Regionalliga - Ost\|Austria • DC	27	25.22%	+6.81u	85.19%	1.44
Serie D - Girone E\|Italy • DC	17	39.35%	+6.69u	100%	1.39
Bundesliga\|Germany • DC	38	16.42%	+6.24u	84.21%	1.4
Primera División RFEF - Group 1\|Spain • DC	44	13.64%	+6u	81.82%	1.39
1. Lig\|Turkey • 1X2	4	133%	+5.32u	100%	2.33
Ligue 1\|Senegal • DC	17	28.35%	+4.82u	94.12%	1.36
2. Division\|Denmark • DC	18	26.67%	+4.8u	94.44%	1.35
Ligue 2\|Algeria • DC	35	13.71%	+4.8u	74.29%	1.61
Super League\|Zambia • DC	17	27.71%	+4.71u	94.12%	1.35
National Soccer League\|Rwanda • DC	17	24.76%	+4.21u	88.24%	1.41
Super League\|Kenya • DC	20	19.35%	+3.87u	85%	1.46
Serie C - Girone B\|Italy • DC	56	6.82%	+3.82u	76.79%	1.39
Friendlies\|World • DC	29	13%	+3.77u	75.86%	1.55
Ligue 2\|France • DC	48	7.81%	+3.75u	75%	1.46

Rank Bucket + Odds Band

Where ranking strength and odds structure combine best.

Bucket	Sample	ROI	Profit	Hit Rate	Avg Odds
21+ • >2.20	68	2.72%	+1.85u	39.71%	2.93
4-7 • 1.40-1.60	57	3.07%	+1.75u	68.42%	1.5
1-3 • >2.20	36	3.92%	+1.41u	41.67%	2.74
4-7 • 1.91-2.20	40	2.55%	+1.02u	50%	2.04
4-7 • >2.20	26	0.81%	+0.21u	38.46%	2.78
1-3 • <1.40	151	-0.23%	-0.35u	79.47%	1.26
13-20 • >2.20	22	-5%	-1.1u	31.82%	2.82
1-3 • 1.91-2.20	30	-6.13%	-1.84u	46.67%	2.04
1-3 • 1.40-1.60	43	-5.49%	-2.36u	62.79%	1.51
1-3 • 1.61-1.90	85	-2.94%	-2.5u	56.47%	1.73
8-12 • >2.20	23	-10.87%	-2.5u	34.78%	2.6
8-12 • 1.91-2.20	43	-7.02%	-3.02u	46.51%	2.01
21+ • 1.91-2.20	143	-2.17%	-3.1u	48.25%	2.03
8-12 • <1.40	212	-3.43%	-7.28u	77.36%	1.26
13-20 • 1.40-1.60	122	-7.58%	-9.25u	60.66%	1.53

Market + Odds Band

Core market-price interaction map.

Bucket	Sample	ROI	Profit	Hit Rate	Avg Odds
DC • >2.20	95	11.78%	+11.19u	43.16%	2.7
1X2 • 1.61-1.90	52	13.85%	+7.2u	65.38%	1.75
1X2 • 1.91-2.20	46	8.15%	+3.75u	52.17%	2.07
1X2 • <1.40	30	-18.03%	-5.41u	63.33%	1.3
1X2 • >2.20	80	-14.15%	-11.32u	32.5%	2.94
1X2 • 1.40-1.60	64	-22.97%	-14.7u	51.56%	1.5
DC • 1.91-2.20	256	-8.86%	-22.67u	45.31%	2.02
DC • 1.61-1.90	810	-9.5%	-76.97u	52.96%	1.72
DC • 1.40-1.60	2008	-5.64%	-113.29u	63.65%	1.48
DC • <1.40	4012	-5.24%	-210.03u	75.5%	1.26

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