Strategy Lab

Football Betting Edge Map

Find where TipSignal’s historical betting edge appears strongest by league, market, odds range, and match profile.

Matches

14400

Days

Updated

16/05/2026

Coverage Snapshot

This page summarizes the latest stored edge-map artifact across the full ranked historical universe.

Coverage: 2026-02-01 to 2026-05-15

Candidates: 14400

Generated: 16/05/2026, 03:44:28

Candidates

14400

All ranked historical candidates

Total units

-813.88u

Flat 1u across the entire universe

Universe ROI

-5.65%

ROI across all ranked candidates

Coverage days

Historical days analyzed

Foundation

Most actionable structural foundations with sample-size discipline.

1X2 • 1.61-1.90

97 sample13.13% ROI+12.74u1.75 avg odds

DC • >2.20

185 sample2.49% ROI+4.61u2.69 avg odds

4-7 • 1.91-2.20

67 sample14.67% ROI+9.83u2.02 avg odds

4-7 • 1.40-1.60

68 sample3.06% ROI+2.08u1.52 avg odds

Strongest Buckets

Best single-dimension buckets worth building sleeves around.

No buckets passed the shortlist thresholds yet.

Strongest Interactions

High-value combinations where the edge concentrates most clearly.

III Liga - Group 2|Poland • 1.40-1.60

13 sample50.38% ROI+6.55u1.5 avg odds

Regionalliga - Ost|Austria • 1.40-1.60

12 sample41.67% ROI+5u1.54 avg odds

2. Division|Denmark • 1.40-1.60

17 sample36.18% ROI+6.15u1.45 avg odds

Serie D - Girone E|Italy • 1.40-1.60

14 sample32.71% ROI+4.58u1.53 avg odds

National Soccer League|Rwanda • 1.40-1.60

16 sample32.5% ROI+5.2u1.5 avg odds

Liga I|Romania • 1.40-1.60

22 sample30.91% ROI+6.8u1.51 avg odds

4. liga - Divizie D|Czech-Republic • DC

18 sample42.72% ROI+7.69u1.43 avg odds

Regionalliga - Ost|Austria • DC

59 sample36.41% ROI+21.48u1.47 avg odds

Ruleset Comparison

Raw universe versus what is actually deployable

This is the honesty layer. `V1` shows the first promising candidate mix, `V2` applies sleeve-level sample discipline, and the frozen tipster ledger shows what the currently published selective engine has actually delivered so far.

Universe

14400 sample

-5.65% ROI

-813.88u

67.3% hit rate

1.45 avg odds

Candidate Ruleset V1

63 sample

13.7% ROI

+8.63u

50.79% hit rate

2.39 avg odds

Candidate Ruleset V2

50 sample

6.8% ROI

+3.4u

40% hit rate

2.62 avg odds

Official Frozen Tipster

81 sample

-3.49% ROI

-2.83u

44.44% hit rate

2.18 avg odds

Candidate Ruleset V1

What the next system iteration should probably be built around

Ruleset sample

Historical candidates matched by the proposed ruleset

Ruleset profit

+8.63u

Flat 1u historical result

Ruleset ROI

13.7%

Historical ROI of the combined candidate ruleset

Ruleset hit rate

50.79%

Historical win rate for the combined candidate ruleset

Premium DC Bombers

Double Chance + odds >2.20, prioritized when rank bucket is 1-3 or 4-7.

This is the cleanest broad profitable structure in the full universe and the strongest foundation for an aggressive sleeve.

Mid-Price Rank 4-7

Rank bucket 4-7 + odds 1.91-2.20, preferably within Double Chance environments.

This pocket is smaller but positive and looks like a good expansion sleeve around the premium high-odds core.

Top-Rank Selective Safe Overlay

Only consider rank bucket 1-3 for lower-odds overlays, and only inside preferred leagues.

Top-ranked lower-odds candidates are much less bad than the broader safe universe, but they still need league-level discipline.

Sleeve Backtests

Premium DC Bombers

HIGH_ODDS + DC + odds >2.20 + rank <=7 + not blocked league

50 sample6.8% ROI+3.4u40% hit rate

Mid-Price Rank 4-7

HIGH_ODDS + DC + 1.91-2.20 odds + rank 4-7 + preferred league

3 sample105% ROI+3.15u100% hit rate

Top-Rank Selective Safe Overlay

DC + odds <1.40 + rank <=3 + preferred league

10 sample20.8% ROI+2.08u90% hit rate

Do not build around the broad SAFE_ODDS stream; its volume is large but structurally unprofitable in this sample.

Use league filters aggressively. Several leagues are strongly additive while others are obvious leak sources.

Keep odds-band structure explicit in the rules. Broad market buckets are too blunt; price zones matter more.

Treat top-rank low-odds candidates as overlays only after league screening, not as the core business.

League Filters

Preferred and blocked environments

Preferred Leagues

Regionalliga - Ost|Austria

59 sample36.41% ROI+21.48u

Serie D - Girone E|Italy

30 sample32.53% ROI+9.76u

Super League|Kenya

32 sample29.22% ROI+9.35u

Ligue 1|Senegal

38 sample24.55% ROI+9.33u

National Soccer League|Rwanda

41 sample23.78% ROI+9.75u

Pro League U23|United-Arab-Emirates

20 sample23.15% ROI+4.63u

Liga I|Romania

60 sample20.28% ROI+12.17u

2. Division|Denmark

49 sample19.59% ROI+9.6u

Blocked Leagues

A Lyga|Lithuania

25 sample-41.64% ROI-10.41u

Queensland Premier League|Australia

23 sample-41.13% ROI-9.46u

Liga Nacional|Honduras

28 sample-39.68% ROI-11.11u

Western Australia NPL|Australia

24 sample-37.33% ROI-8.96u

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17|Spain

25 sample-30% ROI-7.5u

Premier League|Jamaica

27 sample-28.63% ROI-7.73u

Segunda Liga|Portugal

97 sample-27.15% ROI-26.34u

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1|Spain

60 sample-27.13% ROI-16.28u

Candidate Ruleset V2

Stricter deployable core with sleeve sample gates

`V2` keeps the strong sleeves honest. Anything below the sample gate stays on the watchlist instead of quietly inflating the story.

V2 sample

Historical candidates that survive the V2 sample gate

V2 profit

+3.4u

Flat 1u result from the stricter candidate system

V2 ROI

6.8%

Historical ROI after sleeve-level sample discipline

Sample gate

Minimum bets a sleeve needs before it can join the deployable core

Premium DC Bombers

Core

HIGH_ODDS + DC + odds >2.20 + rank <=7 + not blocked league

This remains the only broad sleeve with both meaningful sample and standout profit concentration.

50 sample6.8% ROI+3.4u

Included in V2 because it cleared the 20-bet sample gate and stayed profitable.

Mid-Price Rank 4-7

Watchlist

HIGH_ODDS + DC + 1.91-2.20 odds + rank 4-7 + preferred league

This still looks directionally interesting, but it needs real sample before it can be promoted into the core engine.

3 sample105% ROI+3.15u

Left on watch because it has only 3 bets in this slice, below the 20-bet sample gate.

Top-Rank Selective Safe Overlay

Watchlist

DC + odds <1.40 + rank <=3 + preferred league

This is treated strictly as a watchlist overlay because the raw safe universe is weak and the sample is still tiny.

10 sample20.8% ROI+2.08u

Left on watch because it has only 10 bets in this slice, below the 20-bet sample gate.

V2 is intentionally stricter. A sleeve must show both profitability and enough sample before it gets promoted from watchlist into the deployable core.

This means V2 may have less breadth than V1, but it is much more honest about what the data really supports today.

Watchlist sleeves are still useful research directions, just not part of the serious-money core until they accumulate enough history.

V2 Sleeve Backtests

Which sleeves survived the stricter gate

Premium DC Bombers

Included

HIGH_ODDS + DC + odds >2.20 + rank <=7 + not blocked league

50 sample6.8% ROI+3.4u40% hit rate

Included in V2 because it cleared the 20-bet sample gate and stayed profitable.

Mid-Price Rank 4-7

Watch

HIGH_ODDS + DC + 1.91-2.20 odds + rank 4-7 + preferred league

3 sample105% ROI+3.15u100% hit rate

Left on watch because it has only 3 bets in this slice, below the 20-bet sample gate.

Top-Rank Selective Safe Overlay

Watch

DC + odds <1.40 + rank <=3 + preferred league

10 sample20.8% ROI+2.08u90% hit rate

Left on watch because it has only 10 bets in this slice, below the 20-bet sample gate.

Today Preview

Current candidates that fit the stricter V2 core

2026-05-16 • snapshot

This translates the historical edge map into something operational: which current ranked matches fit the deployable V2 sleeve right now.

Premium DC Bombers

Erbil vs Newroz

Iraqi League|Iraq

0.5u

DRAW_AWAY@ 2.4Rank 1Score 790Premium DC Bombers

Matches the active V2 core sleeve and clears the blocked-league filter.

Filtered Out

Near-miss current candidates blocked by league discipline

No near-miss blocked candidates today.

Watchlist

Biggest leagues by contribution or leak

This list is not automatically “good.” It is the shortlist of environments producing the biggest impact, positive or negative, and should guide inclusion/exclusion rules in the next strategy iteration.

Segunda Liga|Portugal

97 sample

-27.15% ROI

-26.34u

Regionalliga - Ost|Austria

59 sample

36.41% ROI

+21.48u

Championship|England

131 sample

-15% ROI

-19.65u

La Liga|Spain

111 sample

-17.55% ROI

-19.48u

National League|England

128 sample

-15.18% ROI

-19.43u

Liga II|Romania

80 sample

-21.56% ROI

-17.25u

Premier League|Ethiopia

100 sample

-17.21% ROI

-17.21u

Ekstraklasa|Poland

92 sample

-18.53% ROI

-17.05u

By Algorithm

Safe versus high-odds ranked universes.

Bucket	Sample	ROI	Profit	Hit Rate	Avg Odds
HIGH_ODDS	3293	-6.25%	-205.9u	52.6%	1.85
SAFE_ODDS	11107	-5.47%	-607.98u	71.66%	1.33

By Market

Where the edge sits by market family.

Bucket	Sample	ROI	Profit	Hit Rate	Avg Odds
1X2	509	-8.65%	-44.02u	51.28%	2.03
DC	13891	-5.54%	-769.86u	67.89%	1.43

By Odds Band

Find the profitable price zones.

Bucket	Sample	ROI	Profit	Hit Rate	Avg Odds
1.91-2.20	566	-2.78%	-15.72u	48.06%	2.03
>2.20	326	-8.35%	-27.22u	35.28%	2.83
1.61-1.90	1609	-7.09%	-114.02u	54.2%	1.72
1.40-1.60	4398	-6.09%	-268.02u	62.87%	1.5
<1.40	7501	-5.18%	-388.9u	75.55%	1.26

By Rank Bucket

See whether edge lives near the top or deeper in the candidate lists.

Bucket	Sample	ROI	Profit	Hit Rate	Avg Odds
4-7	717	-1.15%	-8.21u	63.6%	1.6
1-3	568	-3.83%	-21.76u	61.62%	1.66
8-12	840	-4.28%	-35.94u	63.57%	1.59
13-20	1184	-8.18%	-96.88u	63.01%	1.52
21+	11091	-5.87%	-651.09u	68.57%	1.41

By Tier

Measure model tier quality in flat-unit terms.

Bucket	Sample	ROI	Profit	Hit Rate	Avg Odds
TIER_B	562	-9.07%	-50.95u	67.26%	1.42
TIER_C	13838	-5.51%	-762.93u	67.3%	1.45

By Weekday

Check if performance clusters by day of week.

Bucket	Sample	ROI	Profit	Hit Rate	Avg Odds
Mon	859	-2.11%	-18.12u	70.55%	1.44
Thu	771	-2.49%	-19.18u	69.13%	1.47
Wed	1014	-5.61%	-56.91u	67.46%	1.47
Fri	1847	-4.61%	-85.09u	67.84%	1.44
Tue	967	-9.08%	-87.82u	64.32%	1.46
Sun	4008	-5.14%	-206.21u	67.37%	1.46
Sat	4934	-6.9%	-340.55u	66.74%	1.44

By Kickoff Band

Check time-of-day patterns in UTC bands.

Bucket	Sample	ROI	Profit	Hit Rate	Avg Odds
00-05 UTC	891	-9.63%	-85.77u	63.08%	1.5
06-11 UTC	2032	-6.91%	-140.48u	66.39%	1.44
18-23 UTC	3034	-7.13%	-216.25u	66.22%	1.45
12-17 UTC	8443	-4.4%	-371.38u	68.35%	1.44

Top Leagues

Most profitable league environments from the full candidate universe.

Bucket	Sample	ROI	Profit	Hit Rate	Avg Odds
Regionalliga - Ost\|Austria	59	36.41%	+21.48u	91.53%	1.47
Liga I\|Romania	60	20.28%	+12.17u	83.33%	1.44
Serie C - Girone B\|Italy	72	13.69%	+9.86u	77.78%	1.44
Serie D - Girone E\|Italy	30	32.53%	+9.76u	90%	1.46
National Soccer League\|Rwanda	41	23.78%	+9.75u	87.8%	1.4
2. Division\|Denmark	49	19.59%	+9.6u	87.76%	1.37
Super League\|Kenya	32	29.22%	+9.35u	90.63%	1.46
Ligue 1\|Senegal	38	24.55%	+9.33u	94.74%	1.32
Super League 1\|Greece	52	17.62%	+9.16u	76.92%	1.53
Ligue 2\|Algeria	45	17.82%	+8.02u	75.56%	1.63
Liga Leumit\|Israel	65	12.15%	+7.9u	78.46%	1.43
Premier League\|Egypt	94	8.33%	+7.83u	79.79%	1.38
4. liga - Divizie D\|Czech-Republic	18	42.72%	+7.69u	100%	1.43
A-League\|Australia	43	16.16%	+6.95u	79.07%	1.52
Primera División RFEF - Group 1\|Spain	82	8.34%	+6.84u	75.61%	1.42

League + Odds Band

Best structural pockets by environment and price.

Bucket	Sample	ROI	Profit	Hit Rate	Avg Odds
Liga I\|Romania • 1.40-1.60	22	30.91%	+6.8u	86.36%	1.51
Ligue 2\|France • 1.61-1.90	11	59.73%	+6.57u	90.91%	1.74
III Liga - Group 2\|Poland • 1.40-1.60	13	50.38%	+6.55u	100%	1.5
Ligue 1\|Senegal • <1.40	29	21.93%	+6.36u	96.55%	1.27
1. Lig\|Turkey • 1.91-2.20	6	102.67%	+6.16u	100%	2.03
2. Division\|Denmark • 1.40-1.60	17	36.18%	+6.15u	94.12%	1.45
Premier League\|Egypt • 1.40-1.60	22	27.09%	+5.96u	86.36%	1.47
Serie C - Girone B\|Italy • 1.40-1.60	23	24.57%	+5.65u	82.61%	1.51
Serie B\|Italy • 1.40-1.60	26	21.12%	+5.49u	80.77%	1.5
National Soccer League\|Rwanda • 1.40-1.60	16	32.5%	+5.2u	87.5%	1.5
First League\|Russia • <1.40	49	10.57%	+5.18u	87.76%	1.26
Regionalliga - Ost\|Austria • 1.61-1.90	7	73.29%	+5.13u	100%	1.73
Friendlies Clubs\|World • 1.40-1.60	10	50.4%	+5.04u	100%	1.5
Regionalliga - Ost\|Austria • 1.40-1.60	12	41.67%	+5u	91.67%	1.54
Regionalliga - Ost\|Austria • 1.91-2.20	5	97.4%	+4.87u	100%	1.97

League + Market

Which market types work in which leagues.

Bucket	Sample	ROI	Profit	Hit Rate	Avg Odds
Regionalliga - Ost\|Austria • DC	59	36.41%	+21.48u	91.53%	1.47
National Soccer League\|Rwanda • DC	39	30.13%	+11.75u	92.31%	1.4
Super League 1\|Greece • DC	50	22.32%	+11.16u	80%	1.53
Liga I\|Romania • DC	59	17.78%	+10.49u	83.05%	1.42
Ligue 2\|Algeria • DC	43	23.3%	+10.02u	79.07%	1.61
2. Division\|Denmark • DC	49	19.59%	+9.6u	87.76%	1.37
Super League\|Kenya • DC	32	29.22%	+9.35u	90.63%	1.46
Ligue 1\|Senegal • DC	38	24.55%	+9.33u	94.74%	1.32
Serie C - Girone B\|Italy • DC	71	12.41%	+8.81u	77.46%	1.43
Liga Leumit\|Israel • DC	65	12.15%	+7.9u	78.46%	1.43
Premier League\|Egypt • DC	94	8.33%	+7.83u	79.79%	1.38
4. liga - Divizie D\|Czech-Republic • DC	18	42.72%	+7.69u	100%	1.43
Serie D - Girone E\|Italy • DC	28	27.18%	+7.61u	89.29%	1.42
A-League\|Australia • DC	43	16.16%	+6.95u	79.07%	1.52
1. Lig\|Turkey • 1X2	5	121.8%	+6.09u	100%	2.22

Rank Bucket + Odds Band

Where ranking strength and odds structure combine best.

Bucket	Sample	ROI	Profit	Hit Rate	Avg Odds
4-7 • 1.91-2.20	67	14.67%	+9.83u	56.72%	2.02
4-7 • >2.20	39	10.18%	+3.97u	41.03%	2.72
4-7 • 1.40-1.60	68	3.06%	+2.08u	67.65%	1.52
1-3 • <1.40	260	0.67%	+1.74u	75%	1.34
8-12 • 1.91-2.20	73	-0.27%	-0.2u	49.32%	2.03
8-12 • <1.40	397	-0.31%	-1.23u	76.32%	1.31
1-3 • 1.40-1.60	47	-5.62%	-2.64u	61.7%	1.53
4-7 • 1.61-1.90	215	-1.33%	-2.87u	57.67%	1.72
1-3 • >2.20	54	-5.81%	-3.14u	37.04%	2.75
8-12 • 1.40-1.60	100	-3.27%	-3.27u	63%	1.53
1-3 • 1.91-2.20	55	-7.67%	-4.22u	45.45%	2.04
13-20 • 1.91-2.20	85	-7.65%	-6.5u	45.88%	2.02
8-12 • >2.20	35	-19%	-6.65u	28.57%	3.17
13-20 • >2.20	53	-15.62%	-8.28u	33.96%	2.59
21+ • >2.20	145	-9.05%	-13.12u	35.17%	2.91

Market + Odds Band

Core market-price interaction map.

Bucket	Sample	ROI	Profit	Hit Rate	Avg Odds
1X2 • 1.61-1.90	97	13.13%	+12.74u	64.95%	1.75
DC • >2.20	185	2.49%	+4.61u	39.46%	2.69
1X2 • 1.91-2.20	83	-0.18%	-0.15u	48.19%	2.07
1X2 • <1.40	69	-7.25%	-5u	72.46%	1.29
DC • 1.91-2.20	483	-3.22%	-15.57u	48.03%	2.02
1X2 • 1.40-1.60	119	-16.62%	-19.78u	55.46%	1.51
1X2 • >2.20	141	-22.57%	-31.83u	29.79%	3.02
DC • 1.61-1.90	1512	-8.38%	-126.76u	53.51%	1.72
DC • 1.40-1.60	4279	-5.8%	-248.24u	63.08%	1.5
DC • <1.40	7432	-5.17%	-383.9u	75.58%	1.26

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