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Strategy Lab / high-odds-ev

High Odds EV Challenger

Experimental high-odds research track built to test whether a more EV-heavy shortlist produces cleaner 1.60+ value selections than the live baseline.

Strategy Lab

Experimental strategy

This strategy family is tracked against the live TipSignal baseline, but it does not power the production picks, analytics, or bankroll pages. Use the lab to compare behavior, not to follow the picks in real betting.

Open the production best picks page
OverviewLegacy SafeLegacy HighAnalyticsOptimizerSimulatorResults
Promotion guardrail

Challenger optimizer status versus the production baseline

This optimizer still evaluates the challenger inside the legacy snapshot-ranking framework. It is useful for comparing challenger config versions against the production baseline, but it does not yet optimize or promote the newer strategy-engine modes like official, hybrid, or v2.

Baseline live
baseline
Production track id
Challenger live
optimizer-2026-04-05T23-36-08-245Z
Current challenger live config
Full ROI delta
-2.07 pts
Current live challenger vs baseline
Last challenger decision
Rejected
Internal challenger promotion only
Live Version
optimizer-2026-04-05T23-36-08-245Z
Promoted Apr 6, 2026, 1:47 AM
Latest Candidate
optimizer-2026-04-13T23-55-20-223Z
Generated Apr 14, 2026, 1:55 AM
Last Run Status
Rejected candidate
Live config retained
Last Run Time
Apr 14, 2026, 2:11 AM
13 tracked runs

Current vs Candidate

Latest optimization decision deltas from the stored report artifacts.

Rejected
ROI Delta
+0.12 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.09 pts
Drawdown Delta
-1.52u
Avg Picks Delta
0.00
Decision reasons
  • No promotable candidate passed validation; current live config retained
  • ROI improvement below minimum threshold

Validation Windows

Candidate metrics versus current live metrics for recent, medium, and full history windows.

recent
Mar 15, 2026, 1:00 AM to Apr 13, 2026, 2:00 AM
Current
ROI
-5.04%
Hit rate
63.19%
Drawdown
28.18u
Picks/day
19.20
Candidate
ROI
-4.75%
Hit rate
63.37%
Drawdown
27.95u
Picks/day
19.20
medium
Jan 24, 2026, 1:00 AM to Apr 13, 2026, 2:00 AM
Current
ROI
-4.70%
Hit rate
64.16%
Drawdown
45.06u
Picks/day
14.53
Candidate
ROI
-4.59%
Hit rate
64.25%
Drawdown
43.54u
Picks/day
14.53
full
Jan 24, 2026, 1:00 AM to Apr 13, 2026, 2:00 AM
Current
ROI
-4.70%
Hit rate
64.16%
Drawdown
45.06u
Picks/day
14.53
Candidate
ROI
-4.59%
Hit rate
64.25%
Drawdown
43.54u
Picks/day
14.53

Changed Parameters

Numeric configuration deltas in the latest optimization run.

PathPreviousNew
leagueQuality.lowAnchor0.30.32

Accepted Versions

optimizer-2026-04-05T23-36-08-245Z
optimizer
Generated Apr 6, 2026, 1:36 AM
Promoted Apr 6, 2026, 1:47 AM
optimizer-2026-04-05T22-52-44-455Z
optimizer
Generated Apr 6, 2026, 12:52 AM
Promoted Apr 6, 2026, 1:05 AM
optimizer-2026-04-04T22-58-43-334Z
optimizer
Generated Apr 5, 2026, 12:58 AM
Promoted Apr 5, 2026, 1:10 AM
optimizer-2026-04-03T22-58-39-097Z
optimizer
Generated Apr 4, 2026, 12:58 AM
Promoted Apr 4, 2026, 1:09 AM
optimizer-2026-04-03T12-34-37-567Z
optimizer
Generated Apr 3, 2026, 2:34 PM
Promoted Apr 3, 2026, 2:45 PM

Run History

Every stored optimizer run, including rejected candidates.

optimizer-2026-04-13T23-55-20-223Z
Run run-2026-04-14T00-11-50-153Z • Finished Apr 14, 2026, 2:11 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
Rejected
ROI
-4.59%
Hit Rate
64.25%
Drawdown
43.54u
Picks/Day
14.53
ROI Delta
+0.12 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.09 pts
Drawdown Delta
-1.52u
Picks/Day Delta
0.00
optimizer-2026-04-13T00-05-31-989Z
Run run-2026-04-13T00-25-18-385Z • Finished Apr 13, 2026, 2:25 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
Rejected
ROI
-4.41%
Hit Rate
64.33%
Drawdown
40.40u
Picks/Day
14.46
ROI Delta
+0.12 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.09 pts
Drawdown Delta
-1.29u
Picks/Day Delta
0.00
optimizer-2026-04-12T00-07-12-149Z
Run run-2026-04-12T00-28-19-362Z • Finished Apr 12, 2026, 2:28 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
Rejected
ROI
-4.34%
Hit Rate
64.41%
Drawdown
38.05u
Picks/Day
14.20
ROI Delta
+0.12 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.09 pts
Drawdown Delta
-1.29u
Picks/Day Delta
0.00
optimizer-2026-04-10T23-50-43-578Z
Run run-2026-04-11T00-06-23-100Z • Finished Apr 11, 2026, 2:06 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
Rejected
ROI
-3.93%
Hit Rate
64.68%
Drawdown
38.05u
Picks/Day
14.12
ROI Delta
+0.12 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.09 pts
Drawdown Delta
-1.29u
Picks/Day Delta
0.00
optimizer-2026-04-09T23-42-43-799Z
Run run-2026-04-09T23-56-39-911Z • Finished Apr 10, 2026, 1:56 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
Rejected
ROI
-3.60%
Hit Rate
64.97%
Drawdown
38.05u
Picks/Day
14.04
ROI Delta
+0.12 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.10 pts
Drawdown Delta
-1.29u
Picks/Day Delta
0.00
optimizer-2026-04-08T23-42-12-649Z
Run run-2026-04-08T23-55-45-045Z • Finished Apr 9, 2026, 1:55 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
Rejected
ROI
-3.97%
Hit Rate
64.68%
Drawdown
38.05u
Picks/Day
14.24
ROI Delta
+0.13 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.10 pts
Drawdown Delta
-1.29u
Picks/Day Delta
0.00
optimizer-2026-04-07T23-45-50-309Z
Run run-2026-04-07T23-59-33-245Z • Finished Apr 8, 2026, 1:59 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
Rejected
ROI
-3.87%
Hit Rate
64.78%
Drawdown
35.41u
Picks/Day
14.15
ROI Delta
+0.13 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.10 pts
Drawdown Delta
-1.29u
Picks/Day Delta
0.00
optimizer-2026-04-06T23-43-23-269Z
Run run-2026-04-06T23-56-29-481Z • Finished Apr 7, 2026, 1:56 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
Rejected
ROI
-3.42%
Hit Rate
64.97%
Drawdown
29.70u
Picks/Day
14.07
ROI Delta
+0.13 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.10 pts
Drawdown Delta
-1.29u
Picks/Day Delta
0.00
optimizer-2026-04-05T23-36-08-245Z
Run run-2026-04-05T23-47-36-256Z • Finished Apr 6, 2026, 1:47 AM
Accepted
ROI
-3.30%
Hit Rate
64.97%
Drawdown
30.44u
Picks/Day
13.99
ROI Delta
+0.33 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.58 pts
Drawdown Delta
0.00u
Picks/Day Delta
-0.06
optimizer-2026-04-05T22-52-44-455Z
Run run-2026-04-05T23-05-24-930Z • Finished Apr 6, 2026, 1:05 AM
Accepted
ROI
-3.63%
Hit Rate
64.40%
Drawdown
30.44u
Picks/Day
14.04
ROI Delta
+0.30 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.44 pts
Drawdown Delta
0.00u
Picks/Day Delta
-0.03
optimizer-2026-04-04T22-58-43-334Z
Run run-2026-04-04T23-10-06-939Z • Finished Apr 5, 2026, 1:10 AM
Accepted
ROI
-3.65%
Hit Rate
64.14%
Drawdown
30.44u
Picks/Day
13.99
ROI Delta
+0.33 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.33 pts
Drawdown Delta
-2.25u
Picks/Day Delta
-0.12
optimizer-2026-04-03T22-58-39-097Z
Run run-2026-04-03T23-09-00-109Z • Finished Apr 4, 2026, 1:09 AM
Accepted
ROI
-3.19%
Hit Rate
64.32%
Drawdown
32.69u
Picks/Day
13.81
ROI Delta
+1.51 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+1.17 pts
Drawdown Delta
-1.71u
Picks/Day Delta
0.00
optimizer-2026-04-03T12-34-37-567Z
Run run-2026-04-03T12-45-13-406Z • Finished Apr 3, 2026, 2:45 PM
Accepted
ROI
-5.26%
Hit Rate
62.81%
Drawdown
34.40u
Picks/Day
13.93
ROI Delta
+1.65 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+1.07 pts
Drawdown Delta
-8.92u
Picks/Day Delta
0.00