Strategy Lab
Signal Weighted Challenger
Review this experimental football betting strategy, compare its results, and see how it performs against the main TipSignal approach.
Status
experimental
Family
signal-weighted
Scope
Research
Strategy Lab
Experimental strategy
This strategy family is tracked against the live TipSignal baseline, but it does not power the production picks, analytics, or bankroll pages. Use the lab to compare behavior, not to follow the picks in real betting.
Promotion guardrail
Challenger optimizer status versus the production baseline
This optimizer still evaluates the challenger inside the legacy snapshot-ranking framework. It is useful for comparing challenger config versions against the production baseline, but it does not yet optimize or promote the newer strategy-engine modes like official, hybrid, or v2.
Baseline live
baseline
Production track id
Challenger live
optimizer-2026-04-20T23-18-13-380Z
Current challenger live config
Full ROI delta
-0.78 pts
Current live challenger vs baseline
Last challenger decision
Rejected
Internal challenger promotion only
Live Version
optimizer-2026-04-20T23-18-13-380Z
Promoted Apr 21, 2026, 1:37 AM
Latest Candidate
optimizer-2026-05-15T23-20-43-442Z
Generated May 16, 2026, 1:20 AM
Last Run Status
Rejected candidate
Live config retained
Last Run Time
May 16, 2026, 2:03 AM
45 tracked runs
Current vs Candidate
Latest optimization decision deltas from the stored report artifacts.
ROI Delta
+0.12 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.04 pts
Drawdown Delta
-4.51u
Avg Picks Delta
+0.06
Decision reasons
- No promotable candidate passed validation; current live config retained
- ROI improvement below minimum threshold
Validation Windows
Candidate metrics versus current live metrics for recent, medium, and full history windows.
recent
Apr 17, 2026, 2:00 AM to May 16, 2026, 2:00 AM
Current
ROI
-3.88%
Hit rate
61.07%
Drawdown
26.71u
Picks/day
19.27
Candidate
ROI
-3.79%
Hit rate
61.07%
Drawdown
26.71u
Picks/day
19.27
medium
Feb 16, 2026, 1:00 AM to May 16, 2026, 2:00 AM
Current
ROI
-3.64%
Hit rate
61.93%
Drawdown
48.36u
Picks/day
19.32
Candidate
ROI
-3.33%
Hit rate
62.09%
Drawdown
43.47u
Picks/day
19.34
full
Jan 24, 2026, 1:00 AM to May 16, 2026, 2:00 AM
Current
ROI
-3.21%
Hit rate
62.31%
Drawdown
53.74u
Picks/day
16.43
Candidate
ROI
-3.10%
Hit rate
62.35%
Drawdown
49.23u
Picks/day
16.49
Changed Parameters
Numeric configuration deltas in the latest optimization run.
| Path | Previous | New |
|---|---|---|
| highOdds.minLeagueBets | 4 | 3 |
Accepted Versions
optimizer-2026-04-20T23-18-13-380Z
optimizer
Generated Apr 21, 2026, 1:18 AM
Promoted Apr 21, 2026, 1:37 AM
optimizer-2026-04-19T23-17-07-234Z
optimizer
Generated Apr 20, 2026, 1:17 AM
Promoted Apr 20, 2026, 1:34 AM
optimizer-2026-04-15T23-20-53-269Z
optimizer
Generated Apr 16, 2026, 1:20 AM
Promoted Apr 16, 2026, 1:42 AM
optimizer-2026-04-14T23-21-09-538Z
optimizer
Generated Apr 15, 2026, 1:21 AM
Promoted Apr 15, 2026, 1:41 AM
optimizer-2026-04-13T23-17-31-241Z
optimizer
Generated Apr 14, 2026, 1:17 AM
Promoted Apr 14, 2026, 1:34 AM
optimizer-2026-04-12T23-21-07-540Z
optimizer
Generated Apr 13, 2026, 1:21 AM
Promoted Apr 13, 2026, 1:42 AM
optimizer-2026-04-04T22-56-41-594Z
optimizer
Generated Apr 5, 2026, 12:56 AM
Promoted Apr 5, 2026, 1:08 AM
optimizer-2026-04-03T22-56-37-707Z
optimizer
Generated Apr 4, 2026, 12:56 AM
Promoted Apr 4, 2026, 1:07 AM
optimizer-2026-04-03T11-41-03-814Z
optimizer
Generated Apr 3, 2026, 1:41 PM
Promoted Apr 3, 2026, 1:51 PM
Run History
Every stored optimizer run, including rejected candidates.
optimizer-2026-05-15T23-20-43-442Z
Run run-2026-05-16T00-03-35-829Z • Finished May 16, 2026, 2:03 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-3.10%
Hit Rate
62.35%
Drawdown
49.23u
Picks/Day
16.49
ROI Delta
+0.12 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.04 pts
Drawdown Delta
-4.51u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.06
optimizer-2026-05-14T23-21-26-712Z
Run run-2026-05-15T00-03-56-037Z • Finished May 15, 2026, 2:03 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-2.94%
Hit Rate
62.49%
Drawdown
49.23u
Picks/Day
16.61
ROI Delta
+0.12 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.04 pts
Drawdown Delta
-4.51u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.06
optimizer-2026-05-13T23-24-03-446Z
Run run-2026-05-14T00-10-08-098Z • Finished May 14, 2026, 2:10 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-2.78%
Hit Rate
62.57%
Drawdown
49.23u
Picks/Day
16.58
ROI Delta
+0.12 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.04 pts
Drawdown Delta
-4.51u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.07
optimizer-2026-05-12T23-22-26-561Z
Run run-2026-05-13T00-07-06-474Z • Finished May 13, 2026, 2:07 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-2.76%
Hit Rate
62.60%
Drawdown
49.23u
Picks/Day
16.39
ROI Delta
+0.09 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.04 pts
Drawdown Delta
-4.51u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.07
optimizer-2026-05-11T23-12-33-838Z
Run run-2026-05-11T23-50-34-689Z • Finished May 12, 2026, 1:50 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-2.88%
Hit Rate
62.51%
Drawdown
49.23u
Picks/Day
16.51
ROI Delta
+0.10 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.04 pts
Drawdown Delta
-4.51u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.07
optimizer-2026-05-10T23-09-47-821Z
Run run-2026-05-10T23-43-59-465Z • Finished May 11, 2026, 1:43 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-3.10%
Hit Rate
62.37%
Drawdown
49.23u
Picks/Day
16.48
ROI Delta
+0.10 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.04 pts
Drawdown Delta
-4.51u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.07
optimizer-2026-05-09T23-23-40-901Z
Run run-2026-05-09T23-59-41-457Z • Finished May 10, 2026, 1:59 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-2.90%
Hit Rate
62.51%
Drawdown
49.23u
Picks/Day
16.45
ROI Delta
+0.10 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.04 pts
Drawdown Delta
-4.51u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.07
optimizer-2026-05-08T23-32-59-637Z
Run run-2026-05-09T00-15-16-112Z • Finished May 9, 2026, 2:15 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-2.92%
Hit Rate
62.54%
Drawdown
49.23u
Picks/Day
16.25
ROI Delta
+0.10 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.04 pts
Drawdown Delta
-4.51u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.07
optimizer-2026-05-07T23-41-13-521Z
Run run-2026-05-08T00-50-14-949Z • Finished May 8, 2026, 2:50 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-3.30%
Hit Rate
62.33%
Drawdown
49.23u
Picks/Day
16.38
ROI Delta
+0.10 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.04 pts
Drawdown Delta
-4.51u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.07
optimizer-2026-05-06T23-22-14-960Z
Run run-2026-05-07T00-18-16-865Z • Finished May 7, 2026, 2:18 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-3.23%
Hit Rate
62.36%
Drawdown
49.23u
Picks/Day
16.34
ROI Delta
+0.10 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.04 pts
Drawdown Delta
-4.51u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.07
optimizer-2026-05-05T22-54-04-261Z
Run run-2026-05-05T23-22-32-920Z • Finished May 6, 2026, 1:22 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-2.86%
Hit Rate
62.58%
Drawdown
49.23u
Picks/Day
16.30
ROI Delta
+0.10 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.04 pts
Drawdown Delta
-4.51u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.07
optimizer-2026-05-04T22-51-25-997Z
Run run-2026-05-04T23-18-29-986Z • Finished May 5, 2026, 1:18 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-2.88%
Hit Rate
62.55%
Drawdown
49.23u
Picks/Day
16.27
ROI Delta
+0.10 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.04 pts
Drawdown Delta
-4.51u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.07
optimizer-2026-05-03T23-34-25-432Z
Run run-2026-05-04T00-07-52-407Z • Finished May 4, 2026, 2:07 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-2.98%
Hit Rate
62.52%
Drawdown
49.23u
Picks/Day
16.23
ROI Delta
+0.11 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.04 pts
Drawdown Delta
-4.51u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.07
optimizer-2026-05-02T23-26-43-364Z
Run run-2026-05-02T23-53-26-173Z • Finished May 3, 2026, 1:53 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-3.11%
Hit Rate
62.48%
Drawdown
49.23u
Picks/Day
16.19
ROI Delta
+0.11 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.04 pts
Drawdown Delta
-4.51u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.07
optimizer-2026-05-01T23-28-16-101Z
Run run-2026-05-01T23-56-32-674Z • Finished May 2, 2026, 1:56 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-3.10%
Hit Rate
62.52%
Drawdown
49.23u
Picks/Day
15.98
ROI Delta
+0.11 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.04 pts
Drawdown Delta
-4.51u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.07
optimizer-2026-04-30T23-32-00-579Z
Run run-2026-05-01T00-03-19-877Z • Finished May 1, 2026, 2:03 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-2.71%
Hit Rate
62.75%
Drawdown
49.23u
Picks/Day
16.11
ROI Delta
+0.11 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.04 pts
Drawdown Delta
-4.51u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.07
optimizer-2026-04-29T23-27-15-236Z
Run run-2026-04-29T23-54-42-668Z • Finished Apr 30, 2026, 1:54 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-2.71%
Hit Rate
62.72%
Drawdown
49.23u
Picks/Day
16.06
ROI Delta
+0.11 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.04 pts
Drawdown Delta
-4.51u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.08
optimizer-2026-04-28T23-24-59-408Z
Run run-2026-04-28T23-50-13-712Z • Finished Apr 29, 2026, 1:50 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-2.70%
Hit Rate
62.69%
Drawdown
49.23u
Picks/Day
16.02
ROI Delta
+0.11 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.04 pts
Drawdown Delta
-4.51u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.08
optimizer-2026-04-27T23-23-07-862Z
Run run-2026-04-27T23-47-47-173Z • Finished Apr 28, 2026, 1:47 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-2.42%
Hit Rate
62.86%
Drawdown
49.23u
Picks/Day
15.98
ROI Delta
+0.11 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.04 pts
Drawdown Delta
-4.51u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.08
optimizer-2026-04-26T23-19-40-323Z
Run run-2026-04-26T23-40-28-480Z • Finished Apr 27, 2026, 1:40 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-2.44%
Hit Rate
62.83%
Drawdown
49.23u
Picks/Day
15.93
ROI Delta
+0.11 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.04 pts
Drawdown Delta
-4.51u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.08
optimizer-2026-04-25T23-20-21-294Z
Run run-2026-04-25T23-40-18-035Z • Finished Apr 26, 2026, 1:40 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-2.24%
Hit Rate
63.01%
Drawdown
49.23u
Picks/Day
15.89
ROI Delta
+0.11 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.04 pts
Drawdown Delta
-4.51u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.08
optimizer-2026-04-24T23-19-09-612Z
Run run-2026-04-24T23-40-13-169Z • Finished Apr 25, 2026, 1:40 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-2.26%
Hit Rate
63.06%
Drawdown
49.23u
Picks/Day
15.66
ROI Delta
+0.12 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.04 pts
Drawdown Delta
-4.51u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.08
optimizer-2026-04-23T23-24-14-110Z
Run run-2026-04-23T23-48-17-550Z • Finished Apr 24, 2026, 1:48 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-2.38%
Hit Rate
63.03%
Drawdown
49.23u
Picks/Day
15.79
ROI Delta
+0.12 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.04 pts
Drawdown Delta
-4.51u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.08
optimizer-2026-04-22T23-25-52-539Z
Run run-2026-04-22T23-51-38-672Z • Finished Apr 23, 2026, 1:51 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-2.28%
Hit Rate
63.07%
Drawdown
49.23u
Picks/Day
15.74
ROI Delta
+0.12 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.04 pts
Drawdown Delta
-4.51u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.08
optimizer-2026-04-21T23-19-50-784Z
Run run-2026-04-21T23-41-19-925Z • Finished Apr 22, 2026, 1:41 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-2.13%
Hit Rate
63.19%
Drawdown
49.23u
Picks/Day
15.69
ROI Delta
+0.12 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.04 pts
Drawdown Delta
-4.51u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.08
optimizer-2026-04-20T23-18-13-380Z
Run run-2026-04-20T23-37-33-044Z • Finished Apr 21, 2026, 1:37 AM
ROI
-2.09%
Hit Rate
63.27%
Drawdown
53.74u
Picks/Day
15.56
ROI Delta
+0.42 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.31 pts
Drawdown Delta
0.00u
Picks/Day Delta
0.00
optimizer-2026-04-19T23-17-07-234Z
Run run-2026-04-19T23-34-42-945Z • Finished Apr 20, 2026, 1:34 AM
ROI
-2.79%
Hit Rate
62.76%
Drawdown
53.74u
Picks/Day
15.53
ROI Delta
+0.39 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.23 pts
Drawdown Delta
-0.29u
Picks/Day Delta
0.00
optimizer-2026-04-18T23-24-16-123Z
Run run-2026-04-18T23-49-02-363Z • Finished Apr 19, 2026, 1:49 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-3.32%
Hit Rate
62.49%
Drawdown
53.74u
Picks/Day
15.29
ROI Delta
+0.29 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.16 pts
Drawdown Delta
-0.29u
Picks/Day Delta
0.00
optimizer-2026-04-17T23-22-37-179Z
Run run-2026-04-17T23-45-07-518Z • Finished Apr 18, 2026, 1:45 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-3.38%
Hit Rate
62.84%
Drawdown
52.39u
Picks/Day
15.58
ROI Delta
+0.21 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.39 pts
Drawdown Delta
-1.64u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.16
optimizer-2026-04-16T23-18-01-618Z
Run run-2026-04-16T23-37-50-641Z • Finished Apr 17, 2026, 1:37 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-3.20%
Hit Rate
62.96%
Drawdown
52.39u
Picks/Day
15.53
ROI Delta
+0.21 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.39 pts
Drawdown Delta
-1.64u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.16
optimizer-2026-04-15T23-20-53-269Z
Run run-2026-04-15T23-42-47-331Z • Finished Apr 16, 2026, 1:42 AM
ROI
-3.76%
Hit Rate
62.37%
Drawdown
54.03u
Picks/Day
15.30
ROI Delta
+0.32 pts
Hit Rate Delta
-0.25 pts
Drawdown Delta
+0.96u
Picks/Day Delta
0.00
optimizer-2026-04-14T23-21-09-538Z
Run run-2026-04-14T23-41-22-292Z • Finished Apr 15, 2026, 1:41 AM
ROI
-4.40%
Hit Rate
62.49%
Drawdown
53.07u
Picks/Day
15.05
ROI Delta
+0.69 pts
Hit Rate Delta
-0.34 pts
Drawdown Delta
0.00u
Picks/Day Delta
0.00
optimizer-2026-04-13T23-17-31-241Z
Run run-2026-04-13T23-34-59-858Z • Finished Apr 14, 2026, 1:34 AM
ROI
-5.32%
Hit Rate
62.70%
Drawdown
51.67u
Picks/Day
15.18
ROI Delta
+0.64 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+3.93 pts
Drawdown Delta
0.00u
Picks/Day Delta
0.00
optimizer-2026-04-12T23-21-07-540Z
Run run-2026-04-12T23-42-39-103Z • Finished Apr 13, 2026, 1:42 AM
ROI
-5.69%
Hit Rate
58.92%
Drawdown
50.34u
Picks/Day
15.12
ROI Delta
+0.31 pts
Hit Rate Delta
-0.09 pts
Drawdown Delta
0.00u
Picks/Day Delta
0.00
optimizer-2026-04-11T23-21-17-492Z
Run run-2026-04-11T23-42-10-759Z • Finished Apr 12, 2026, 1:42 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-4.80%
Hit Rate
59.89%
Drawdown
45.25u
Picks/Day
15.23
ROI Delta
+0.48 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.46 pts
Drawdown Delta
0.00u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.17
optimizer-2026-04-10T23-15-37-985Z
Run run-2026-04-10T23-31-16-429Z • Finished Apr 11, 2026, 1:31 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-4.40%
Hit Rate
60.16%
Drawdown
42.91u
Picks/Day
15.16
ROI Delta
+0.49 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.47 pts
Drawdown Delta
0.00u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.18
optimizer-2026-04-09T23-11-53-579Z
Run run-2026-04-09T23-25-44-630Z • Finished Apr 10, 2026, 1:25 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-4.00%
Hit Rate
60.44%
Drawdown
42.91u
Picks/Day
14.89
ROI Delta
+0.49 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.47 pts
Drawdown Delta
0.00u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.18
optimizer-2026-04-08T23-12-12-640Z
Run run-2026-04-08T23-26-00-480Z • Finished Apr 9, 2026, 1:26 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-4.51%
Hit Rate
60.07%
Drawdown
42.91u
Picks/Day
15.10
ROI Delta
+0.50 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.48 pts
Drawdown Delta
0.00u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.18
optimizer-2026-04-07T23-14-09-275Z
Run run-2026-04-07T23-29-00-705Z • Finished Apr 8, 2026, 1:29 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-4.67%
Hit Rate
59.98%
Drawdown
41.94u
Picks/Day
15.03
ROI Delta
+0.52 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.49 pts
Drawdown Delta
0.00u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.18
optimizer-2026-04-06T23-13-12-950Z
Run run-2026-04-06T23-27-37-196Z • Finished Apr 7, 2026, 1:27 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-4.63%
Hit Rate
59.98%
Drawdown
39.28u
Picks/Day
14.96
ROI Delta
+0.53 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.50 pts
Drawdown Delta
0.00u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.19
optimizer-2026-04-05T23-10-29-797Z
Run run-2026-04-05T23-22-35-190Z • Finished Apr 6, 2026, 1:22 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-4.25%
Hit Rate
60.18%
Drawdown
33.99u
Picks/Day
14.88
ROI Delta
+0.53 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.51 pts
Drawdown Delta
0.00u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.19
optimizer-2026-04-05T22-50-42-425Z
Run run-2026-04-05T23-03-37-647Z • Finished Apr 6, 2026, 1:03 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-4.25%
Hit Rate
60.18%
Drawdown
33.99u
Picks/Day
14.88
ROI Delta
+0.53 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.51 pts
Drawdown Delta
0.00u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.19
optimizer-2026-04-04T22-56-41-594Z
Run run-2026-04-04T23-08-20-673Z • Finished Apr 5, 2026, 1:08 AM
ROI
-5.05%
Hit Rate
59.56%
Drawdown
32.35u
Picks/Day
14.62
ROI Delta
+0.29 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.14 pts
Drawdown Delta
-1.39u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.09
optimizer-2026-04-03T22-56-37-707Z
Run run-2026-04-03T23-07-44-429Z • Finished Apr 4, 2026, 1:07 AM
ROI
-4.97%
Hit Rate
59.61%
Drawdown
33.74u
Picks/Day
14.24
ROI Delta
+0.78 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.83 pts
Drawdown Delta
-5.85u
Picks/Day Delta
0.00
optimizer-2026-04-03T11-41-03-814Z
Run run-2026-04-03T11-51-31-203Z • Finished Apr 3, 2026, 1:51 PM
ROI
-5.97%
Hit Rate
58.75%
Drawdown
39.59u
Picks/Day
14.33
ROI Delta
+0.78 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.36 pts
Drawdown Delta
0.00u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.09