Strategy Lab
CLV Aware Challenger
Review this experimental football betting strategy, compare its results, and see how it performs against the main TipSignal approach.
Status
experimental
Family
clv-aware
Scope
Research
Strategy Lab
Experimental strategy
This strategy family is tracked against the live TipSignal baseline, but it does not power the production picks, analytics, or bankroll pages. Use the lab to compare behavior, not to follow the picks in real betting.
Promotion guardrail
Challenger optimizer status versus the production baseline
This optimizer still evaluates the challenger inside the legacy snapshot-ranking framework. It is useful for comparing challenger config versions against the production baseline, but it does not yet optimize or promote the newer strategy-engine modes like official, hybrid, or v2.
Baseline live
baseline
Production track id
Challenger live
optimizer-2026-04-15T23-44-51-904Z
Current challenger live config
Full ROI delta
-2.50 pts
Current live challenger vs baseline
Last challenger decision
Rejected
Internal challenger promotion only
Live Version
optimizer-2026-04-15T23-44-51-904Z
Promoted Apr 16, 2026, 2:06 AM
Latest Candidate
optimizer-2026-05-16T00-07-40-977Z
Generated May 16, 2026, 2:07 AM
Last Run Status
Rejected candidate
Live config retained
Last Run Time
May 16, 2026, 2:50 AM
45 tracked runs
Current vs Candidate
Latest optimization decision deltas from the stored report artifacts.
ROI Delta
+0.23 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.38 pts
Drawdown Delta
-1.57u
Avg Picks Delta
-0.32
Decision reasons
- No promotable candidate passed validation; current live config retained
- ROI improvement below minimum threshold
Validation Windows
Candidate metrics versus current live metrics for recent, medium, and full history windows.
recent
Apr 17, 2026, 2:00 AM to May 16, 2026, 2:00 AM
Current
ROI
-4.17%
Hit rate
58.66%
Drawdown
22.49u
Picks/day
18.87
Candidate
ROI
-3.24%
Hit rate
59.32%
Drawdown
21.22u
Picks/day
18.60
medium
Feb 16, 2026, 1:00 AM to May 16, 2026, 2:00 AM
Current
ROI
-5.03%
Hit rate
58.35%
Drawdown
56.24u
Picks/day
18.76
Candidate
ROI
-4.84%
Hit rate
58.72%
Drawdown
54.98u
Picks/day
18.41
full
Jan 24, 2026, 1:00 AM to May 16, 2026, 2:00 AM
Current
ROI
-4.93%
Hit rate
58.61%
Drawdown
59.28u
Picks/day
15.84
Candidate
ROI
-4.69%
Hit rate
58.99%
Drawdown
57.71u
Picks/day
15.52
Changed Parameters
Numeric configuration deltas in the latest optimization run.
| Path | Previous | New |
|---|---|---|
| engine.gates.defaultMaxEntropy | 0.88 | 0.86 |
Accepted Versions
optimizer-2026-04-15T23-44-51-904Z
optimizer
Generated Apr 16, 2026, 1:44 AM
Promoted Apr 16, 2026, 2:06 AM
optimizer-2026-04-12T23-44-28-102Z
optimizer
Generated Apr 13, 2026, 1:44 AM
Promoted Apr 13, 2026, 2:03 AM
optimizer-2026-04-05T22-51-39-497Z
optimizer
Generated Apr 6, 2026, 12:51 AM
Promoted Apr 6, 2026, 1:04 AM
optimizer-2026-04-04T22-57-42-233Z
optimizer
Generated Apr 5, 2026, 12:57 AM
Promoted Apr 5, 2026, 1:09 AM
optimizer-2026-04-03T22-57-36-940Z
optimizer
Generated Apr 4, 2026, 12:57 AM
Promoted Apr 4, 2026, 1:08 AM
optimizer-2026-04-03T12-07-49-513Z
optimizer
Generated Apr 3, 2026, 2:07 PM
Promoted Apr 3, 2026, 2:18 PM
Run History
Every stored optimizer run, including rejected candidates.
optimizer-2026-05-16T00-07-40-977Z
Run run-2026-05-16T00-50-40-214Z • Finished May 16, 2026, 2:50 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-4.69%
Hit Rate
58.99%
Drawdown
57.71u
Picks/Day
15.52
ROI Delta
+0.23 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.38 pts
Drawdown Delta
-1.57u
Picks/Day Delta
-0.32
optimizer-2026-05-15T00-07-53-276Z
Run run-2026-05-15T00-51-47-357Z • Finished May 15, 2026, 2:51 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-4.87%
Hit Rate
58.92%
Drawdown
57.71u
Picks/Day
15.48
ROI Delta
+0.15 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.33 pts
Drawdown Delta
-1.57u
Picks/Day Delta
-0.32
optimizer-2026-05-14T00-14-44-641Z
Run run-2026-05-14T00-59-13-265Z • Finished May 14, 2026, 2:59 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-4.82%
Hit Rate
58.97%
Drawdown
57.71u
Picks/Day
15.58
ROI Delta
+0.15 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.33 pts
Drawdown Delta
-1.57u
Picks/Day Delta
-0.33
optimizer-2026-05-13T00-11-43-300Z
Run run-2026-05-13T00-57-11-522Z • Finished May 13, 2026, 2:57 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-4.91%
Hit Rate
58.92%
Drawdown
57.71u
Picks/Day
15.40
ROI Delta
+0.18 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.36 pts
Drawdown Delta
-1.57u
Picks/Day Delta
-0.32
optimizer-2026-05-11T23-54-16-193Z
Run run-2026-05-12T00-38-31-173Z • Finished May 12, 2026, 2:38 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-5.02%
Hit Rate
58.56%
Drawdown
59.28u
Picks/Day
15.86
ROI Delta
+0.15 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.06 pts
Drawdown Delta
0.00u
Picks/Day Delta
0.00
optimizer-2026-05-10T23-47-06-275Z
Run run-2026-05-11T00-19-19-244Z • Finished May 11, 2026, 2:19 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-5.06%
Hit Rate
58.54%
Drawdown
57.13u
Picks/Day
15.82
ROI Delta
+0.15 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.06 pts
Drawdown Delta
0.00u
Picks/Day Delta
0.00
optimizer-2026-05-10T00-03-39-772Z
Run run-2026-05-10T00-44-24-143Z • Finished May 10, 2026, 2:44 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-4.94%
Hit Rate
58.92%
Drawdown
54.80u
Picks/Day
15.46
ROI Delta
+0.17 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.33 pts
Drawdown Delta
-0.09u
Picks/Day Delta
-0.32
optimizer-2026-05-09T00-19-21-826Z
Run run-2026-05-09T01-00-57-599Z • Finished May 9, 2026, 3:00 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-4.80%
Hit Rate
59.03%
Drawdown
54.76u
Picks/Day
15.26
ROI Delta
+0.17 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.34 pts
Drawdown Delta
-0.09u
Picks/Day Delta
-0.32
optimizer-2026-05-08T00-57-21-523Z
Run run-2026-05-08T02-06-57-848Z • Finished May 8, 2026, 4:06 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-5.22%
Hit Rate
58.83%
Drawdown
54.76u
Picks/Day
15.37
ROI Delta
+0.17 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.34 pts
Drawdown Delta
-0.09u
Picks/Day Delta
-0.33
optimizer-2026-05-07T00-25-24-192Z
Run run-2026-05-07T01-21-40-004Z • Finished May 7, 2026, 3:21 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-5.22%
Hit Rate
58.77%
Drawdown
54.76u
Picks/Day
15.33
ROI Delta
+0.17 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.34 pts
Drawdown Delta
-0.09u
Picks/Day Delta
-0.33
optimizer-2026-05-05T23-25-06-704Z
Run run-2026-05-05T23-53-46-029Z • Finished May 6, 2026, 1:53 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-4.90%
Hit Rate
58.96%
Drawdown
54.21u
Picks/Day
15.28
ROI Delta
+0.18 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.35 pts
Drawdown Delta
+0.36u
Picks/Day Delta
-0.33
optimizer-2026-05-04T23-21-02-359Z
Run run-2026-05-04T23-47-57-198Z • Finished May 5, 2026, 1:47 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-4.48%
Hit Rate
59.20%
Drawdown
53.75u
Picks/Day
15.31
ROI Delta
+0.22 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.35 pts
Drawdown Delta
+1.22u
Picks/Day Delta
-0.32
optimizer-2026-05-04T00-11-12-142Z
Run run-2026-05-04T00-46-00-973Z • Finished May 4, 2026, 2:46 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-4.76%
Hit Rate
59.12%
Drawdown
53.75u
Picks/Day
15.26
ROI Delta
+0.07 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.29 pts
Drawdown Delta
+1.22u
Picks/Day Delta
-0.32
optimizer-2026-05-02T23-55-59-699Z
Run run-2026-05-03T00-24-58-817Z • Finished May 3, 2026, 2:24 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-4.92%
Hit Rate
58.98%
Drawdown
52.87u
Picks/Day
15.72
ROI Delta
+0.06 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.23 pts
Drawdown Delta
+0.34u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.19
optimizer-2026-05-01T23-58-59-234Z
Run run-2026-05-02T00-27-30-851Z • Finished May 2, 2026, 2:27 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-4.84%
Hit Rate
59.10%
Drawdown
53.75u
Picks/Day
15.00
ROI Delta
+0.07 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.29 pts
Drawdown Delta
+1.22u
Picks/Day Delta
-0.32
optimizer-2026-05-01T00-06-21-136Z
Run run-2026-05-01T00-38-46-348Z • Finished May 1, 2026, 2:38 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-4.80%
Hit Rate
59.08%
Drawdown
53.75u
Picks/Day
15.11
ROI Delta
+0.07 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.30 pts
Drawdown Delta
+1.22u
Picks/Day Delta
-0.33
optimizer-2026-04-29T23-57-20-563Z
Run run-2026-04-30T00-26-14-241Z • Finished Apr 30, 2026, 2:26 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-4.79%
Hit Rate
59.01%
Drawdown
52.87u
Picks/Day
15.58
ROI Delta
+0.07 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.24 pts
Drawdown Delta
+0.34u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.19
optimizer-2026-04-28T23-52-32-242Z
Run run-2026-04-29T00-18-08-508Z • Finished Apr 29, 2026, 2:18 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-4.89%
Hit Rate
58.92%
Drawdown
52.87u
Picks/Day
15.53
ROI Delta
+0.07 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.24 pts
Drawdown Delta
+0.34u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.20
optimizer-2026-04-27T23-50-03-102Z
Run run-2026-04-28T00-14-40-346Z • Finished Apr 28, 2026, 2:14 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-4.68%
Hit Rate
59.05%
Drawdown
50.89u
Picks/Day
15.48
ROI Delta
+0.07 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.24 pts
Drawdown Delta
+0.34u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.20
optimizer-2026-04-26T23-42-20-651Z
Run run-2026-04-27T00-02-33-459Z • Finished Apr 27, 2026, 2:02 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-4.59%
Hit Rate
59.11%
Drawdown
49.84u
Picks/Day
15.43
ROI Delta
+0.07 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.25 pts
Drawdown Delta
+0.34u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.20
optimizer-2026-04-25T23-42-08-084Z
Run run-2026-04-26T00-02-09-231Z • Finished Apr 26, 2026, 2:02 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-4.59%
Hit Rate
59.09%
Drawdown
49.84u
Picks/Day
15.38
ROI Delta
+0.07 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.25 pts
Drawdown Delta
+0.34u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.20
optimizer-2026-04-24T23-42-09-144Z
Run run-2026-04-25T00-03-35-214Z • Finished Apr 25, 2026, 2:03 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-4.70%
Hit Rate
59.01%
Drawdown
49.84u
Picks/Day
15.16
ROI Delta
+0.07 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.25 pts
Drawdown Delta
+0.34u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.20
optimizer-2026-04-23T23-50-34-848Z
Run run-2026-04-24T00-15-32-634Z • Finished Apr 24, 2026, 2:15 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-5.15%
Hit Rate
58.77%
Drawdown
49.84u
Picks/Day
15.28
ROI Delta
+0.08 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.26 pts
Drawdown Delta
+0.34u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.21
optimizer-2026-04-22T23-54-02-054Z
Run run-2026-04-23T00-19-55-788Z • Finished Apr 23, 2026, 2:19 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-5.02%
Hit Rate
58.82%
Drawdown
47.13u
Picks/Day
15.22
ROI Delta
+0.08 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.26 pts
Drawdown Delta
+0.34u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.21
optimizer-2026-04-21T23-43-15-068Z
Run run-2026-04-22T00-04-17-439Z • Finished Apr 22, 2026, 2:04 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-4.93%
Hit Rate
58.88%
Drawdown
45.84u
Picks/Day
15.16
ROI Delta
+0.08 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.27 pts
Drawdown Delta
+0.34u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.21
optimizer-2026-04-20T23-39-23-322Z
Run run-2026-04-20T23-58-44-522Z • Finished Apr 21, 2026, 1:58 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-4.75%
Hit Rate
59.02%
Drawdown
43.64u
Picks/Day
15.11
ROI Delta
+0.07 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.27 pts
Drawdown Delta
+0.07u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.21
optimizer-2026-04-19T23-36-32-491Z
Run run-2026-04-19T23-54-31-088Z • Finished Apr 20, 2026, 1:54 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-4.77%
Hit Rate
59.01%
Drawdown
43.57u
Picks/Day
15.11
ROI Delta
+0.08 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.27 pts
Drawdown Delta
0.00u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.22
optimizer-2026-04-18T23-51-20-983Z
Run run-2026-04-19T00-16-18-092Z • Finished Apr 19, 2026, 2:16 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-5.03%
Hit Rate
58.91%
Drawdown
43.57u
Picks/Day
14.87
ROI Delta
+0.08 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.28 pts
Drawdown Delta
0.00u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.22
optimizer-2026-04-17T23-47-10-742Z
Run run-2026-04-18T00-09-06-690Z • Finished Apr 18, 2026, 2:09 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-5.28%
Hit Rate
58.81%
Drawdown
43.57u
Picks/Day
14.99
ROI Delta
+0.09 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.29 pts
Drawdown Delta
0.00u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.22
optimizer-2026-04-16T23-39-41-016Z
Run run-2026-04-16T23-57-53-634Z • Finished Apr 17, 2026, 1:57 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-5.21%
Hit Rate
58.88%
Drawdown
43.57u
Picks/Day
14.93
ROI Delta
+0.09 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.29 pts
Drawdown Delta
0.00u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.23
optimizer-2026-04-15T23-44-51-904Z
Run run-2026-04-16T00-06-42-820Z • Finished Apr 16, 2026, 2:06 AM
ROI
-5.45%
Hit Rate
58.56%
Drawdown
43.57u
Picks/Day
14.63
ROI Delta
+0.36 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.02 pts
Drawdown Delta
-5.79u
Picks/Day Delta
-0.33
optimizer-2026-04-14T23-43-17-788Z
Run run-2026-04-15T00-03-49-981Z • Finished Apr 15, 2026, 2:03 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-6.10%
Hit Rate
58.45%
Drawdown
43.57u
Picks/Day
14.38
ROI Delta
+0.17 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.02 pts
Drawdown Delta
-5.79u
Picks/Day Delta
-0.33
optimizer-2026-04-13T23-36-38-291Z
Run run-2026-04-13T23-53-41-947Z • Finished Apr 14, 2026, 1:53 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-6.65%
Hit Rate
58.10%
Drawdown
41.57u
Picks/Day
14.51
ROI Delta
+0.22 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.05 pts
Drawdown Delta
-5.79u
Picks/Day Delta
-0.32
optimizer-2026-04-12T23-44-28-102Z
Run run-2026-04-13T00-03-42-955Z • Finished Apr 13, 2026, 2:03 AM
ROI
-6.29%
Hit Rate
58.38%
Drawdown
44.61u
Picks/Day
14.76
ROI Delta
+0.27 pts
Hit Rate Delta
-0.09 pts
Drawdown Delta
-0.39u
Picks/Day Delta
0.00
optimizer-2026-04-11T23-44-15-469Z
Run run-2026-04-12T00-05-08-185Z • Finished Apr 12, 2026, 2:05 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-5.90%
Hit Rate
59.14%
Drawdown
43.14u
Picks/Day
14.75
ROI Delta
+0.25 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.43 pts
Drawdown Delta
+0.63u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.25
optimizer-2026-04-10T23-32-43-736Z
Run run-2026-04-10T23-49-05-231Z • Finished Apr 11, 2026, 1:49 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-5.52%
Hit Rate
59.40%
Drawdown
43.14u
Picks/Day
14.68
ROI Delta
+0.25 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.44 pts
Drawdown Delta
+0.63u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.25
optimizer-2026-04-09T23-27-08-708Z
Run run-2026-04-09T23-41-17-206Z • Finished Apr 10, 2026, 1:41 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-5.45%
Hit Rate
59.48%
Drawdown
43.14u
Picks/Day
14.61
ROI Delta
+0.25 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.44 pts
Drawdown Delta
+0.63u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.26
optimizer-2026-04-08T23-27-19-642Z
Run run-2026-04-08T23-40-55-030Z • Finished Apr 9, 2026, 1:40 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-5.84%
Hit Rate
59.19%
Drawdown
43.14u
Picks/Day
14.81
ROI Delta
+0.20 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.41 pts
Drawdown Delta
+0.63u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.25
optimizer-2026-04-07T23-30-29-586Z
Run run-2026-04-07T23-44-28-601Z • Finished Apr 8, 2026, 1:44 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-5.92%
Hit Rate
59.18%
Drawdown
42.17u
Picks/Day
14.73
ROI Delta
+0.21 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.42 pts
Drawdown Delta
+2.30u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.25
optimizer-2026-04-06T23-29-00-505Z
Run run-2026-04-06T23-41-58-065Z • Finished Apr 7, 2026, 1:41 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-5.39%
Hit Rate
59.45%
Drawdown
36.55u
Picks/Day
14.66
ROI Delta
+0.10 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.33 pts
Drawdown Delta
+0.34u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.26
optimizer-2026-04-05T23-23-44-046Z
Run run-2026-04-05T23-34-55-963Z • Finished Apr 6, 2026, 1:34 AM
Candidate evaluated • Live config retained
ROI
-5.21%
Hit Rate
59.54%
Drawdown
36.55u
Picks/Day
14.58
ROI Delta
+0.10 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.33 pts
Drawdown Delta
+0.34u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.26
optimizer-2026-04-05T22-51-39-497Z
Run run-2026-04-05T23-04-14-320Z • Finished Apr 6, 2026, 1:04 AM
ROI
-5.31%
Hit Rate
59.21%
Drawdown
36.21u
Picks/Day
14.32
ROI Delta
+0.34 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.20 pts
Drawdown Delta
-1.29u
Picks/Day Delta
0.00
optimizer-2026-04-04T22-57-42-233Z
Run run-2026-04-04T23-09-13-497Z • Finished Apr 5, 2026, 1:09 AM
ROI
-5.71%
Hit Rate
58.99%
Drawdown
37.50u
Picks/Day
14.24
ROI Delta
+0.25 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.07 pts
Drawdown Delta
+1.58u
Picks/Day Delta
+0.13
optimizer-2026-04-03T22-57-36-940Z
Run run-2026-04-03T23-08-20-262Z • Finished Apr 4, 2026, 1:08 AM
ROI
-5.61%
Hit Rate
59.11%
Drawdown
35.50u
Picks/Day
13.81
ROI Delta
+0.37 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.21 pts
Drawdown Delta
+0.30u
Picks/Day Delta
0.00
optimizer-2026-04-03T12-07-49-513Z
Run run-2026-04-03T12-18-06-303Z • Finished Apr 3, 2026, 2:18 PM
ROI
-6.32%
Hit Rate
58.80%
Drawdown
35.20u
Picks/Day
13.91
ROI Delta
+0.56 pts
Hit Rate Delta
+0.43 pts
Drawdown Delta
-4.04u
Picks/Day Delta
0.00